In its August 2026 WASDE report, the USDA lowered 2026/27 ending stocks to 1.653bn bushels, down from 1.790bn in July and well below expectations for 1.725bn. Given extremely strong demand, the stocks-to-use ratio is nearing 10%, a psychologically bullish level for markets. The report was neutral for old crop corn – the USDA raised export volume by 75m bushels, but the market should have been confident that an adjustment of this nature was coming.

The old-crop soybeans balance sheet was largely unchanged other than a 5m-bushel revision higher to crush demand. The nature of the move was not impactful enough to have significant influence on old-crop prices. USDA estimated higher new crop soybean production on the back of more acreage despite slightly lower yield predictions. Ending stocks came in higher than expected, but traders will watch export demand closely.

The USDA still expects a 2.1% YOY US milk production growth in 2026, followed by a 0.6% expansion next year which would be a 3-year low. All-milk prices for 2026 are expected to average US$19.85/cwt, a multi-year low, followed by US$19.80/cwt in 2027.