The first outlook for the 2025/26 seasonal determinations predicts a strong water  foundation for most systems.          

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria expects the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems to start the year at about 25% high-reliability water shares (HRWS). The Campaspe system is forecast to have 100% HRWS from July 2025. The Broken and Bullarook system are expected to start at 0 HRWS.

By mid-October 2025, average inflow conditions are expected to allow several systems to reach 100% HRWS. Spill risks are dependent on water releases—estimated at 50% for Murray, 30% for Goulburn and 45% for Campaspe at the beginning of July 2025.

The was no change to 2024/25 seasonal determinations.