Domestic market trends

This section provides insights on domestic food and dairy market trends

Packaged milk sales are reported by Dairy Australia.

Sales volumes have been generally flat over recent years, which is considerably better than trends seen in the US and Europe, where consistent falls of 2-3% have been recorded.

Sales trends compared to the prior year vary significantly across states as shown. Victorian sales trends have been much more variable in recent years, likely due to the impact of longer periods of COVID-19 induced lockdown in 2020 and 2021 compared to the other states.

Supermarket sales of milk

Typically, just under 60% of milk is sold through supermarkets in Australia, making them the major channel to consumers. This is particularly true for white milk, while a larger proportion of flavoured milk is sold through convenience outlets.

Milk – as a high-volume, staple product that can drive shopper traffic – has been at the forefront of major retailer efforts to win market share based on every day low prices. Private label white milk has been integral to these strategies.

Average selling prices

The average selling prices per litre across all fresh white milk products (across all brands and pack sizes) varies between the fresh milk states due to the different shares of the market held by private label products (see below), which results in a lower average price in NSW compared to Queensland.

Private label v brands

There has been little movement in shares of supermarket sales between processor brands and supermarket sales. Private label shares have drifted slightly lower in the past year.

Major changes in food sales trends have been apparent during the period of COVID-19 restrictions which (by necessity) forced households to increase their spending in grocery and specialist food stores and sharply reduce the consumption of meals out of home. Takeaway spending has been close to prior year levels.