Domestic market trends

This section provides insights on domestic food and dairy market trends

Milk sales

Packaged milk sales are reported by Dairy Australia.

Sales volumes have been generally flat over recent years, which is considerably better than trends seen in the US and Europe, where consistent falls of 2-3% have been recorded.

The impact of COVID-19 has lifted at-home consumption which is unlikely to be sustained once movement restrictions have eased.

 

Source: Dairy Australia

Sales trends compared to the prior year vary significantly across states as shown. The stronger COVID-19 restrictions in Victoria have supported a higher growth in year-on-year sales in recent months. 

 

Source: Dairy Australia

Supermarket sales in 2020

In the year to July 2019, total supermarket sales of white milk products fell by close to 0.5%. In 2020 there has been a turnaround in line with the stronger home consumption of food with the onset of movement restrictions due to COVID-19.

While national milk sales numbers have not yet been released, Dairy Australia reported that supermarket sales for the first half of 2020 surged 5-9% through March to June.

Source: Dairy Australia

Average selling prices

The average selling prices per litre across all fresh white milk products (across all brands and pack sizes) varies between the fresh milk states due to the different shares of the market held by private label products (see below), which results in a lower average price in NSW compared to Queensland.

Average prices have increased since mid-2019 with the lift in private label prices by major grocery retailers.

Source: Nielsen Homescan based on a continuous panel of 10,000 households; excludes non-private dwellings & businesses, non-permanently occupied households & out-of-home/impulse purchasing. DAIRY AUSTRALIA calculation based in part on data reported by Nielsen through its Homescan Service for the dairy category for the total Australian market, according to the Nielsen standard product hierarchy. Copyright (c) 2020, The Nielsen Company

Private label v brands

There has been little movement in shares of supermarket sales between processor brands and supermarket sales. Private label shares have drifted slightly lower in the past year.

 

Source: Nielsen Homescan based on a continuous panel of 10,000 households; excludes non-private dwellings & businesses, non-permanently occupied households & out-of-home/impulse purchasing. DAIRY AUSTRALIA calculation based in part on data reported by Nielsen through its Homescan Service for the dairy category for the total Australian market, according to the Nielsen standard product hierarchy. Copyright (c) 2020, The Nielsen Company

Australian Food Sales Trends

Major changes in food sales trends have been apparent during the period of COVID-19 restrictions which (by necessity) forced households to increase their spending in grocery and specialist food stores and sharply reduce the consumption of meals out of home. Takeaway spending has been close to prior year levels.

% Changes in Food Sales 

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Retail Trade (Table 11)