Trade Trends
This summary provides highlights of some high-level developments in global dairy trade that influence commodity prices and the Australian commodity milk value.
Global Milk Balance
This global milk balance is an indicator of the trends in net supply and demand on the global commodities market.
“Market balance” is a measure of the balance of global supply and demand that takes account of
- milk collections in major exporters,
- domestic demand in those major producers, and
- net international trade flows.
If the bars are blue, the market is in net demand, which suggests the inventories of all products will be in decline, which tends to support a trend towards higher prices.
The effect of this may vary region to region.
“Market tension” is a measure of the extent to which major dairy exporters are over or undersupplied in commodity milk powders – the higher the tension, the tighter global supply and – typically – the higher commodity prices will trend.
Source: Freshagenda
Global Trade
These charts summarise recent trends in total trade in the major commodity products – milk powders, cheese, butter, butteroil and whey products – measured in milk solids equivalent.
These show trends in global commodity trade. Trade volumes of in major commodity groups are reduced to their component milk solids (butterfat and protein) based on typical product specifications to provide an overall measure of the volume in trade (in farmgate milk solids equivalent terms).
Source: Freshagenda based on analysis of Global Trade Tracker data
Australian Trade
Cheese is the largest and most important product category of trade relevant to the Australian industry. This shows the recent trends in exports of cheese from the Australian market, as well as exports of milk powders, which are the largest categories of exports, based on customs data.
This reports the monthly trade (imports and exports) in the key commodities that affect Australia’s trade balance – cheese imports, and cheese & SMP exports.