USDA leaves milk growth forecast unchanged

by | Nov 16, 2022 | Forecast, Global

The USDA’s milk production growth forecast for 2022 was unchanged from the prior month in its November WASDE report. Milk output is expected to be up 0.3% YOY at 103bn kgs in 2022 after a 1.3% YOY lift in 2021. As in the prior WASDE report, milk production for 2023 was projected 1% above 2022. For both 2022 and 2023, dairy cow numbers were lowered, but with raised average yields per cow.

For 2022, the forecasts for butter, NFDM and cheese prices were lowered, but dry whey prices were unchanged. For 2023, forecasts for butter prices were raised, while cheese and NFDM prices were lowered. The 2022 all-milk price forecast was decreased from the prior month to US$0.502/l, up from US$0.368/l in 2021 and US$0.361/l in 2020. The 2023 all-milk price is expected to decline 11.4% YOY to US$0.445/l.

In the same report, the USDA revised global corn production downwards relative to October but ending world stocks for 2022/23 were largely in line with trader estimates. US production projections for both corn and soybeans were revised upwards for 2022/23. In recent trading sessions, CME corn has moved lower while soybeans have been relatively flat.