Drier than average conditions for most of Australia, with warmer than average days and nights is the forecast for June to August. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) expects below average rainfall, with parts of the south very likely to be below average. From June to August, maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average in across mainland Australia except for inland eastern and central Australia.

Meanwhile, the BoM is predicting a 50% chance of an El Niño developing this year, US forecaster National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is a 90% chance of the climate pattern this year. Both agencies monitor sea surface temperatures and the atmosphere, but NOAA places a greater emphasis on sea surface temperatures. In order for the BoM to declare an El Niño alert, both the ocean and the atmosphere must show signs of change and the BoM requires warmer sea surface temperatures than its US counterpart. Currently, ocean temperatures on both sides of the Pacific are warmer however, atmospheric conditions aren’t yet pointing to El Niño, meaning the usual hot and dry conditions may not necessarily eventuate.