Five countries have declared states of emergency or issued red alerts as temperatures broke records across northern Europe. The deadly heatwave spreading across Europe is breaking temperature records, fuelling wildfires and disrupting transportation, and is without doubt cutting deep into milk and feed crop output.

Grains analysts Strategie Grains had already lowered their corn crop forecast to 65.4mt, down from 69.7mt last year, due to recurring water shortages and hot weather in many production zones are adversely affecting yield potential. Their wheat harvest forecast is down 5% on last year. The private firm’s outlook is significantly lower than the European Commission, which sticks to corn crop estimates that are almost 10% higher. 

Grain futures prices have reacted to the likely lower yields, with Corn Nov 22 quotes climbing more than €30/t on EEX since the first week of July, a partial bounce-back from the sharp fall in prices after the global commodities sell off that was sparked in the 2^nd half of June.