A progression toward La Niña conditions occurred in the equatorial Pacific during October and NIWA has moved to La Niña Alert. Temperatures are very likely to be above average across Aotearoa New Zealand (65% chance) with a period of particularly warm conditions from around the second week of November. Rainfall totals were about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance).

Rainfall is most likely to be below normal in the west of the South Island, near normal in the north and east of the North Island and about equally likely to be near normal or below normal in all other regions.