US milk production fell 1.3% YOY in February according to the USDA, mostly reflecting a continuing decline in the dairy herd. In YOY terms, February average yield per cow was down 0.4% YOY while cow numbers were down 0.9%. At 9.330m, February cow numbers were up 10,000 head on the prior month yet 89,000 head below the same month last year. This time, the government made a 5,000 head downward revision to January 2024 dairy herd data. The national dairy herd peaked in March and has declined by 103,000 head since.

Among major producing states, February milk production in Wisconsin rose by 0.6% YOY and California was down 0.9% YOY. Milk production in South Dakota, Florida and Ohio continued to improve. Supplies continued to decline in New Mexico, Texas, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Utah and Vermont. At the regional level, we estimate Upper Midwest supplies rose 0.2% YOY while Desert states were down 3% YOY.