Milk production declined 0.4% YOY in November according to the USDA. The contraction was the first since May 2020 and followed a revised 0.1% YOY growth for October. The overall decline in November was a result of a 0.2% YOY rise in average yields per cow and a 0.5% drop in the national dairy herd. At 9,385m, cow numbers were 10,000 head below the prior month and 47,000 head below the same month in 2020. Cow numbers have now declined in six consecutive months. After falling in August and September, national average yields improved YOY in October and November, however.

Among major producing states, November milk production in Wisconsin and California rose by 2.2% YOY and 1% YOY respectively. Supplies in South Dakota and Texas also continued to improve at impressive rates, up 16.7% YOY and 2.8% YOY respectively. This was more than offset by weaker trends in New Mexico (-13.2% YOY) and Washington (-6.7% YOY), while Pennsylvania also declined (-3.5% YOY).