US milk production fell 0.6% YOY in November according to the USDA, mostly reflecting a continuing decline in the dairy herd. In YOY terms, November  yield per cow was down 0.1% YOY on average, while cow numbers were down 0.5%. At 9,360m, November cow numbers were down 10,000 head on the prior month and 44,000 head below the same month in 2022. This time, the government did not made revisions to historical dairy herd data. The national dairy herd peaked in March and has declined by 84,000 head since.

Among major producing states, November milk production in Wisconsin rose by 0.2% YOY while California was down 1.7% YOY. Milk production in South Dakota, New York, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Florida continued to improve. Supplies declined in New Mexico, Texas, Colorado, Kansas and Oregon. We estimate the Upper Midwest supplies rose 0.9% YOY while Desert states were down 2.8% YOY.