The November to January outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology is for above median rainfall for much of the eastern two-thirds of the country, while western Tasmania is likely to be below median. New “chance of extreme climate outlooks” indicate November to January is 1.5 to 2.5 times more likely to see rainfall in the top 20% of historical records for much of eastern and central Australia. Eastern parts of NSW, Victoria and Tasmania, as well as inland southern Queensland are 2.0 to 2.5 times as likely to have unusually high rainfall.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is neutral, with continued cooling of the tropical Pacific towards La Niña levels likely in the coming months. This may be increasing the chances of above average rainfall for much of eastern and northern Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to return to neutral during November.