ABARES: Ag’s record production and exports

by | Mar 8, 2023 | Australia, Forecast

In its latest forecast the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Science (ABARES) the value of agriculture production is tipped to reach a record $90bn in 2022/23, while exports are forecast to hit $75bn. ABARES attributes record production to three consecutive years of La Niña events and continued high prices.

Farmgate prices paid for milk are forecast to rise to 72.6c/l in 2022/23 before decreasing to 62.5c/l in 2023/24. The lift in milk prices in 2022 lifted the gross value of milk production 20% to $5.8bn for the season with the sharp increase in farmgate prices expected to more than offsetting lower milk production as competition for supply increases. Australian milk production is forecast to fall by 6% to 8bn litres in 2022/23 due to wet seasonal conditions reducing milk yields, with production expected to remain at 8bn litres in 2023/24 due to rising milk yields offsetting declining cow numbers. The value of dairy production is expected to fall to $5bn in 2023/24. Meanwhile, Australian dairy exports are forecast to fall 2% in 2022/23 due to a reduction in shipped volumes.

Over the medium-term, the value of Australian dairy exports is expected to decline slightly but remain ahead of the past decade. The real value of dairy exports is projected to be around $3.1 billion in 2027/28, down from a forecast $3.3bn forecast value in 2023/24.