ABARES has lifted its agricultural production value forecast by $5.4bn to $78bn in its agricultural commodities December quarterly. The value of agricultural exports its forecast to hit a record $61bn off the back of exceptional seasonal conditions and a surge in world commodity prices. ABARES expects production to increase year on year for every major livestock commodity and almost every major crop commodity with local farmers likely to produce the largest volume ever.
According to ABARES executive director Jared Greenville, the unprecedented rise is due to the combination of favourable conditions and 30-year price highs. Greenville said it’s the first time in at least half a century that production will increase for so many products at the same time and if the forecasts are realised, 2021/22 will see the largest total volume of agricultural commodities Australia has ever produced. ABARES’s forecast accounts for the substantial rainfall and localised flooding in east coast growing regions during November which is expected to delay harvests and result in some crop losses. However, the larger impact of significant rainfall will be on grain quality.