There are indications the current El Niño phase could be one of the strongest on record with unprecedented global temperatures in 2024 as a result. Comparisons of the most recent 17 events indicate the 2023 edition was the sixth strongest to October based on the Niño 3.4 index, which is used to measure central Pacific Sea surface temperatures relative to average.
According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) monthly diagnostic report, this El Niño event could rival previous super events. In its Global Seasonal Climate Update, The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) strongly favour ongoing warmth for Australia, consistent with the expected El Niño development and predictions of above-normal sea-surface temperatures over much of the global oceans. The WMO also believes the weather event is likely to last until April and combine with climate change to bring “exceptionally high temperatures through 2024.” According to WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas 2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record and 2024 could be even warmer as El Niño impacts global temperatures in the year after its development.