Global Market Updates
Milk from Australian dairy farms are made into products that are sold locally and in countries around the world. Understanding what is happening in all these markets will provide an insight to important trends that strongly influence Southern Region farmgate milk prices. Keep up to date with the latest global dairy market developments
NZ October milk output lifts
October milk production rose 0.9% YOY on a solids basis but was down 0.3% on a volume basis, according to DCANZ. Season-to-date (June to October) production is tracking 0.6% ahead of the prior year. October marks peak production in New Zealand and while monthly output...
EU-27 SMP, cheese exports ease
Trends in EU-27 exports were mixed in September, with increases for fats, dry whey and WMP, and falls for SMP and cheese. In MSE terms, exports rose 2% YOY in September, a 7-month low. At 63,188t, SMP exports were down 0.4% YOY, despite growing shipments into SE Asia...
GDT flat but mostly bad news
GDT event #344 yielded a flat index but the weight of the small gains in WMP drove that outcome to offset weaker NZ SMP prices and an ugly result in cheddar. SMP dropped 3.7% on average to US$2,622/t but the detail within that result wasn’t great for Oceania product,...
Strongest El Niño on record forecast
There are indications the current El Niño phase could be one of the strongest on record with unprecedented global temperatures in 2024 as a result. Comparisons of the most recent 17 events indicate the 2023 edition was the sixth strongest to October based on the Niño...
USDA lowers milk growth forecast
In its November WASDE report, the USDA milk production growth forecast for 2023 was lowered from the prior month due to the revised dairy cow numbers in the USDA’s latest Milk Production report. Milk output is expected to be up 0.3% YOY at 103bn kgs in 2023 after a...
Pulse rising
WMP prices rose to US$2,955/t at this week’s GDT Pulse event #37, up 1.7% from the latest GDT event #343 and 0.9% higher than the price achieved at the previous Pulse event. The nearest SGX-NZX WMP futures contract settled at US$2,960/t, US$5/t higher than yesterday’s...
GDT eases
Prices were down 0.7% at GDT event #343, breaking the run of four consecutive positive events. However, there are more positives than negatives to be taken from this event. The Pulse results since the last event and futures signalled a slide in WMP prices, which fell...
Pulse drops
The gloss from the latest GDT event has worn off. GDT Pulse #36 saw prices fall for both WMP and SMP. WMP settled at US$2,930/t, down 2.8% from GDT event #342 and down 1.5% from the previous GDT Pulse event. The SGX-NZX WMP futures contract with November delivery...
US milk production down in September
US milk production fell 0.2% YOY in September according to the USDA, reflecting continuing decline in the dairy herd. In YOY terms, September average yield per cow was up 0.2% YOY while cow numbers were down 0.4%. At 9,370m, September cow numbers were down 6,000 head...
China WMP imports weaker in September
September dairy imports fell an estimated 14.3% YOY in milk solids equivalent (MSE) terms, driven by lower purchases of milk powders and dry whey. WMP imports were down 35.9% YOY to 18,981t, pulling year to date volumes down 38% or 228,855t. With high local...